Japan Matcha Supply at Risk: Nishio Production Declines Due to Extreme

Japan's Nishio Matcha Region Enters Peak Harvest — But Production Continues to Decline

Nishio City in Aichi Prefecture, one of Japan's most important matcha-producing regions, is currently in the peak of its 2026 shincha (new tea) harvest season. However, producers and industry officials are raising alarms: output has been on a steady downward trend, and 2026 is expected to be no exception — with production down an estimated 10% compared to prior years.

Nishio: A Key Hub for Japanese Matcha

Aichi Prefecture ranks 4th in Japan for the production of tencha (碾茶) — the shade-grown green tea leaf that is stone-ground to produce matcha. Within Aichi, Nishio City accounts for approximately 85% of the prefecture's total tencha output, making it one of the most concentrated matcha-growing areas in the country.

Tencha refers to the specially cultivated tea leaves used exclusively for grinding into matcha. Unlike standard green tea, tencha plants are shaded from direct sunlight for several weeks before harvest, which increases chlorophyll and L-theanine content, giving matcha its characteristic vibrant green color and umami-rich flavor.

Each year, harvest begins after Hachiju-hachiya (八十八夜) — literally "the 88th night," a traditional Japanese agricultural marker falling around May 2nd, roughly two weeks after the last frost. This period signals the optimal time to begin picking the season's first tender tea shoots.

10% Drop Expected in 2026 — Extreme Weather to Blame

According to Yoichiro Okutani of the Nishio Tea Cooperative (西尾茶協同組合), production in 2026 is estimated to be down by approximately 10%. He attributed the decline directly to the extreme weather conditions of summer 2025: record-breaking heat and significantly below-average rainfall.

"We understand that production has fallen by around 10% in 2026 as well. The cause is the intense heat of 2025 and the lack of rain," Okutani stated.

Summer heat is a critical growth factor for nibancha (二番茶, the second-flush harvest) and for establishing the health of tea plants ahead of the following year's shincha season. Damage to plants during the summer months directly reduces the yield of the next spring's new tea crop — creating a compounding impact across harvest cycles.

Hotter Summers Ahead: A Structural Supply Risk

The Japan Meteorological Agency has forecast that temperatures from June through August 2026 will be above average across all three months. This raises serious concerns that the ongoing heat-driven decline in tencha production may not be a short-term anomaly, but a structural trend driven by climate change.

For US-based matcha buyers, this signals a tightening supply environment from one of Japan's core matcha-producing regions. Reduced availability of high-quality tencha could put upward pressure on matcha prices and limit procurement options — particularly for ceremonial and premium culinary grades sourced from Aichi.

What This Means for US Matcha Importers and Buyers

If you import Japanese matcha for your café, restaurant, or retail business, now is the time to review your sourcing strategy. With production volumes declining across key growing regions — driven by climate stress — locking in reliable supply agreements and diversifying sourcing is becoming increasingly important.

At Matcha Wholesale Japan, we work directly with Japanese producers and maintain a consistent supply of premium ceremonial and culinary matcha. We monitor crop conditions across Japan's major growing regions — including Aichi, Kyoto (Uji), and Kagoshima — to ensure our clients receive stable, high-quality supply even when domestic conditions are challenging.

Source:
TV Aichi / Yahoo! News Japan — "収穫最盛期を迎えた愛知・西尾の抹茶　生産量が減少傾向に　「猛暑と少雨が原因」と分析" (May 20, 2026)
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/cd1de3cd14ce28b2d7eed95dcf136b5194cf7f60