Japan Matcha Prices to Rise 1.5× in 2026: What U.S. Buyers Need to Know

According to BSS San-in Broadcasting (May 8, 2026), Japan's matcha wholesale prices are expected to rise approximately 1.5 times compared to 2025, as the global matcha boom — dubbed the "matcha sōdō" (matcha uproar) in Japan — continues to accelerate into a third consecutive year. For U.S. café owners, restaurant buyers, and specialty importers sourcing ceremonial and culinary-grade matcha from Japan, this signals another year of tight supply and upward price pressure.

Key Takeaway: 1.5× Purchase Price Forecast for 2026

Yuta Oka, President of Tosuien (桃翠園), a long-established tea house in Izumo City, Shimane Prefecture that exports matcha to more than 30 countries, told BSS San-in Broadcasting: "Compared to last year, I expect this year's purchase price to be about 1.5 times higher. Last year's purchase price was already double that of the year before."

In practical terms, wholesale procurement costs in 2026 are tracking at roughly three times the 2024 baseline when compounded (2024 → 2× in 2025 → additional 1.5× in 2026).

Background: The "Matcha Sōdō" of 2025

The term matcha sōdō (抹茶騒動) literally means "matcha uproar" — a phrase Japanese media adopted in 2025 to describe the nationwide price surges and supply shortages caused by sudden export demand. At the height of the shortage, some Japanese supermarkets saw certain matcha products nearly double in price month-over-month.

The primary driver, according to the report, was a sharp jump in exports: shipments of "powdered green tea" (which is centered on matcha) surged to 170% of the prior year's volume from 2024 to 2025. Demand growth has been led by the United States, Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, where matcha lattes, desserts, and ready-to-drink applications continue to expand beyond traditional tea ceremony use.

2026 Harvest Outlook: Leaves Growing Well, But Demand Outpaces Supply

May is shincha (新茶) season — the first harvest of the year — and picking has begun across the San-in region. The article references hachijū-hachiya (八十八夜), literally "the 88th night" counted from Risshun (the first day of spring on the traditional Japanese calendar), which falls around May 2 and is considered the ceremonial start of new tea harvesting.

President Oka reported favorable growing conditions: "Thanks to very warm weather in April and plenty of daytime rainfall, the tea leaves are growing steadily and well." However, he added that reports of even stronger demand than 2025 are already reaching the industry.

What This Means for U.S. Importers and Café Buyers

For U.S. buyers, several operational implications emerge from the BSS report:

• Expect higher wholesale quotes in 2026. Japanese tea houses are signaling a roughly 50% year-over-year increase in procurement costs, which will flow through to FOB and CIF export pricing.
• Allocation, not just price, is the constraint. Tosuien's president stated that established Japanese customers and local consumers will be prioritized: "We will properly protect our existing customers." New or irregular U.S. buyers may face longer lead times or capped volumes.
• Domestic Japanese demand remains strong. Tosuien's matcha is used in convenience-store sweets and in the MOS Burger matcha shake, so Japanese wholesale channels are competing directly with export demand.
• Quality maintenance is becoming harder. Oka noted that maintaining consistent quality amid rapid volume growth is an increasing challenge for producers.

Recommended Actions for 2026 Matcha Procurement

• Lock in contracts with trusted Japanese wholesalers earlier in the season than in prior years.
• Confirm grade specifications (ceremonial vs. culinary) in writing, since supply pressure can shift available grades.
• Build buffer stock ahead of the peak U.S. summer matcha-latte season (June–August).
• Diversify sourcing across multiple prefectures (Uji, Nishio, Kagoshima, Shimane, and others) to reduce single-supplier risk.

Glossary of Japanese Tea Terms Used in This Article

• Matcha (抹茶): Finely ground powdered green tea made by stone-milling dried, shade-grown tea leaves (tencha).
• Shincha (新茶): "New tea" — the first flush of green tea harvested in spring, prized for its freshness and sweetness.
• Hachijū-hachiya (八十八夜): The 88th night after Risshun (around May 2); traditionally considered the ideal day to begin harvesting new tea.
• Matcha sōdō (抹茶騒動): "Matcha uproar" — a media term describing the 2025 price surge and supply shortage caused by global demand.

Source

BSS San-in Broadcasting (BSS山陰放送), "世界的抹茶ブーム『抹茶騒動』今年は…さらに広がる気配「今年の仕入れ値は、1.5倍ぐらいになるんじゃないかな」", published May 8, 2026, via Yahoo! News Japan:
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/66ef18a9a8e9bc836aff803f8c86784ba3fa6aef